The first Summer School organized by the CMA (Centre for Applied Mathematics) on Prospective Modeling and Energy Transition, in collaboration with LTU (Lulea University of Technology, Sweden) and supported by ETSAP, will take place from July 8 to July 13 at MINES ParisTech, Sophia Antipolis (near Nice and Cannes).

Spurred by issues of climate change and economic globalization, prospective modeling is being considerably reinvested following years of neglect. The connections it makes between numerical/quantitative projection, mathematical economics, public economy and strategic thinking make it a valuable tool in the context of international negotiations on climate.

The renewed interest in this subject is an opportunity to present the variety of analyses and prospective elements developed using the TIMES family of models to build informed energy policies compatible with climate challenge and in line with the chosen direction of a society.

The TIMES family of models is used by a variety of different research environments to tackle multi-disciplinary topics, usually in small modeling teams/groups. Proficient use of comprehensive energy system optimization models like TIMES requires expertise of the system in focus, operation research, and economics, along with knowledge of what policy makers need.

To meet these needs, we are organizing a summer school for young international PhD students to guide them in identifying methodological keys for drawing up energy transition policies compatible with climate issues.

The aim of the summer school is to present prospective modeling tools.

We will begin with a presentation of prospective modeling tools, which were created in the 1960s from dialogue between mathematicians and economists and are based on a concept of optimality. Our particular focus will be the TIMES family of models. The next step will involve looking at the history of how long-term prospective models have tackled the climate issue, followed by an interpretation of mathematics’ contribution in the context of prospective modeling by developing the model’s interdisciplinary approach, combining for example mathematics and economics.

In the context of energy transition, and using concrete examples, we will explore how these tools, which bring into play applied mathematics and economics skills, have become an essential aid to prospective reflection on policies to fight climate change. Namely, we intend to understand the mechanisms underlying ambitious contemporary energy policies at work in selected countries using studies carried out by local national ETSAP teams partnering the project. We believe this should allow students to appraise the transitions underway, and identify the obstacles and driving mechanisms involved in implementing them.

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Edi Assoumou

CMA MINES ParisTech, France

Dr. Edi Assoumou has been a researcher at the MINES ParisTech Centre for Applied Mathematics (CMA) in France since 2007. His research activities focus on energy system analysis and the development and articulation of models of different spatial and temporal resolutions. Edi has been involved in several EU and French projects where his research has covered sustainable transport, urban energy systems, energy and lifestyles, power systems transition, flexibility in gas systems, and Life Cycle Analysis. In particular Edi is an experienced TIMES modeler and coordinates the development of the French TIMES model and its sectoral modules as well as the EU power system model.

Pernille Seljom

IFE, Norway

Pernille Seljom (PhD) has been a research scientist at the Institute for Energy Technology since 2008. She has a Master of Science (2006) in Energy and Environmental Engineering and a PhD (2017) in Operations Research from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU). Ms Seljom’s thesis was dedicated to improving the representation of intermittent electricity generation and temperature-dependent heat demand using stochastic programming in TIMES models. Seljom is an experienced TIMES modeller. In addition to using TIMES to analyze the transition of the energy system, she assists other institutions in developing their own TIMES models. Her current research focus includes the role of flexibility in a future decarbonized energy system, incorporating competition and interaction between various supply and demand flexibility measures, from a Norwegian and European perspective.

Fionn Rogan

UCC Ireland

Fionn lectures in Energy Systems Modelling and Energy Engineering in the School of Engineering in University College Cork. He is also a researcher with the Energy Policy and Modelling Group in the SFI MaREI research centre. Fionn has worked with a number of energy system models and has published papers on multi-model approaches combining energy simulation with energy optimization modelling. His other research interests include citizen engagement with energy systems modelling, ex-post analysis of energy policy, and energy innovation. Fionn has provided technical advice and contributed to a number of reports that have directly informed climate and energy policy formation in Ireland.

Yolanda Lechon

CIEMAT, Spain

With a PhD in agricultural engineering from the Polytechnic University of Madrid, Yolanda Lechon has been head of the energy unit at Energy System Analysis since 2013. Her main research activities have focused on the economic evaluation of external costs and benefits associated with the production and consumption of energy; the application of ExternE methodology to evaluate the externalities of energy and transport; Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment of energy technologies and processes with a special focus on biomass; biofuels and solar thermal technologies; environmentally and socially extended economic input-output modelling to evaluate socioeconomic and environmental effects of energy technologies; and energy system modelling using techno economic partial equilibrium optimization models.

She has participated in several European Commission and national research projects, has acted as a reviewer on several international R&D programs, and is co-author of more than 80 papers and book chapters and more than 60 contributions to conferences and workshops.

Patrícia Fortes

FCT Nova, Portugal​

Patrícia Fortes is a post-doctoral researcher in the fields of energy systems and energy economics, working at CENSE/NOVA University Lisbon research center. Her research explores the transition to low-carbon energy systems, focusing on technological changes, macroeconomic impacts and energy-climate policy analysis. She has more than 10 years’ experience in energy system and computable general equilibrium modelling, in particular the link between the technological TIMES and economic GEM-E3 models for Portugal. She has worked at the European Commission’s Joint Research Center in Seville (2015) on the development of the POTEnCIA (Policy Oriented Tool for Energy and Climate Change Impact Assessment) model and cooperated in multiple national and international research projects on energy-economy-environment modeling. She also has extensive experience of energy-climate policy support thanks to her work with the Portuguese Ministry of the Environment and Energy Transition. She has a PhD in Environment from NOVA University Lisbon (2014).

Markus Blesl

IER Stuttgart, Germany

PD. Dr. Markus Blesl is head of the System Analytical Methods and Heat Market (SAM) department at the Institute for Energy Economics and Rational Energy Application (IER), part of the University of Stuttgart. He graduated in physics from the University of Stuttgart in 1995 and obtained his PhD on spatially high-resolution modelling of local energy systems from the same university in 2002. In 2014, he habilitated with a thesis entitled, “Combined Heat and Power Generation in the Heat Market of Germany and Europe – an Energy System and Technology Analysis” and received the venia legendi for Energy System and Technology Analysis. His main areas of work include the analysis and evaluation of energy technologies for coupled and uncoupled power and heat generation, as well as the further development and application of energy system models.

Sandrine Selosse

CMA MINES ParisTech, France

Dr. Sandrine Selosse has been a researcher at the Centre for Applied Mathematics (CMA), part of MINES ParisTech France, since May 2008. Her research activities focus on long-term modeling of energy systems and assessment of international energy and climate policy issues. In particular, she implements and develops extensions for the bottom-up world energy system model, TIAM-FR (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model), a TIMES family model from the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (ETSAP) under the aegis of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Moreover, she plays a central role in running the Chair Modeling for Sustainable Development, created in 2008, for which she also coordinates interactions with industrial partners. This collaboration between academic, institutional and industrial actors aims to develop decision-making tools for energy and climate issues. Sandrine also teaches courses on long-term energy system modeling and international climate negotiations.

Anna Krook-Riekkola

LTU, Sweden

Anna Krook-Riekkola is an Assistant Professor at Luleå University of Technology (LTU) in Sweden. Her field of research is energy system analysis and modelling with a focus on long-term energy and climate policy assessment. She has worked with the MARKAL/TIMES modelling framework since 2001 and developed TIMES-Sweden – an energy system optimization model of the comprehensive Swedish energy system – first as a part of a European model within two EU projects and then as part of her PhD. Her work also includes methodological modelling, e.g. linking national CGE models with TIMES-Sweden, and developing a generic TIMES-city model (ongoing EU project). She has worked with EU energy system evaluation (at the EU Joint Research Centre in the Netherlands), and has provided policy support to the Swedish government and the Swedish EPA using TIMES-Sweden to explore climate-neutral pathways. Her teaching experience includes courses on sustainable energy systems, environmental systems analysis and sustainable development.

Nadia Maïzi

CMA MINES ParisTech, France​

Nadia Maïzi, a Professor at MINES ParisTech and Director of the Center for Applied Mathematics (CMA), is an expert in energy system modelling, optimization and prospective analysis. She has been Director of the ParisTech Chair Modeling for Sustainable Development and acted as French delegate on the ETSAP (Energy Technology System Analysis Program) run by the IEA (International Energy Agency) since 2008, while since 2009 she has headed the ParisTech delegation on the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). In addition, Professor Maïzi is head of studies for the advanced Master’s degree OSE (Energy Systems Optimization).