The first Summer School organized by the CMA (Centre for Applied Mathematics) on Prospective Modeling and Energy Transition, in collaboration with LTU (Lulea University of Technology, Sweden) and supported by ETSAP, will take place from July 8 to July 13 at MINES ParisTech, Sophia Antipolis (near Nice and Cannes).
Spurred by issues of climate change and economic globalization, prospective modeling is being considerably reinvested following years of neglect. The connections it makes between numerical/quantitative projection, mathematical economics, public economy and strategic thinking make it a valuable tool in the context of international negotiations on climate.
The renewed interest in this subject is an opportunity to present the variety of analyses and prospective elements developed using the TIMES family of models to build informed energy policies compatible with climate challenge and in line with the chosen direction of a society.
The TIMES family of models is used by a variety of different research environments to tackle multi-disciplinary topics, usually in small modeling teams/groups. Proficient use of comprehensive energy system optimization models like TIMES requires expertise of the system in focus, operation research, and economics, along with knowledge of what policy makers need.
To meet these needs, we are organizing a summer school for young international PhD students to guide them in identifying methodological keys for drawing up energy transition policies compatible with climate issues.
The aim of the summer school is to present prospective modeling tools.
We will begin with a presentation of prospective modeling tools, which were created in the 1960s from dialogue between mathematicians and economists and are based on a concept of optimality. Our particular focus will be the TIMES family of models. The next step will involve looking at the history of how long-term prospective models have tackled the climate issue, followed by an interpretation of mathematics’ contribution in the context of prospective modeling by developing the model’s interdisciplinary approach, combining for example mathematics and economics.
In the context of energy transition, and using concrete examples, we will explore how these tools, which bring into play applied mathematics and economics skills, have become an essential aid to prospective reflection on policies to fight climate change. Namely, we intend to understand the mechanisms underlying ambitious contemporary energy policies at work in selected countries using studies carried out by local national ETSAP teams partnering the project. We believe this should allow students to appraise the transitions underway, and identify the obstacles and driving mechanisms involved in implementing them.